National Championship Opening Odds: Huskies open as clear underdogs against Michigan

· Yahoo Sports

Apr 4, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; UConn Huskies forward Tarris Reed Jr. (5) reacts after a play against the Illinois Fighting Illini during the first half of a semifinal of the Final Four of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

UConn men’s basketball is headed to its third national championship gamer in four seasons, and the seventh overall in the program’s vaunted history. After the Huskies dispatched Illinois 71-62 in the Final Four, Alex Karaban will play the final game of his historic career in the national championship and have a chance to finish his career as the most decorated men’s college basketball player of the century.

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Michigan, who dismantled Arizona 91-73 in the Final Four nightcap Friday night, awaits Dan Hurley and the Huskies. The Wolverines are the No. 1 overall team in KenPom, with the No. 4 offense and No. 1 defense. While Michigan’s defense is tops in the nation, the offense is firing on all cylinders too — the Wolverines have scored 90-plus points in each of their five NCAA tournament games so far, a tournament record.

The Monday night matchup will change the history of either program in terms of their national championship success. Michigan is 1-6 all time in the title game, winning in 1989, while UConn is 6-0 and looking to win its seventh national title.

Early odds are pretty heavily in Michigan’s favor. Per FanDuel, The Wolverines open as 7.5-point favorites over the Huskies in the title game, with UConn’s moneyline odds at +280. The over/under for the game is set at 144.5. It’s the largest spread the Huskies have faced all season. That line also presumably factors in that Michigan star Yaxel Lendeborg is hobbled after injuring his knee and ankle against Arizona. The UAB transfer will almost certainly play Monday night, but likely won’t be 100 percent.

For what it’s worth, KenPom is more or less in agreement with FanDuel. Michigan is predicted to win 77-70 per KenPom, with the Wolverines having a 73 percent win probability. If UConn is to pull off the upset, the Huskies will need another big game from Karaban and one more epic performance from Tarris Reed Jr., a former Michigan transfer who has dominated all tournament. At +470 at FanDuel to win Final Four Most Outstanding Player, Reed is an interesting bet for those looking for better odds on another UConn national title.

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