Houston Open Odds, Picks and Predictions 2026: Marco Penge Overpowers Memorial Park
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The PGA Tour is stopping down in the Lone Star State for the Texas Children’s Houston Open this week at Memorial Park Golf Course.
My top golf picks for the week are headlined by bomber Marco Penge and Irishman Shane Lowry.
⛳ Houston Open: Key takeaways
- Best early bet: Marco Penge to win (+3300) – First PGA Tour win is coming sooner than later, and this track suits his game.
- Best early value: Shane Lowry to win (+4500) – Consecutive missed cuts have the Irishman too far down the odds board.
- Course: Memorial Park Golf Course is a demanding Par 70 that stretches a lengthy 7,475 yards, and was influenced during a 2019 Tom Doak redesign by Brooks Koepka.
- Weather: Early forecasts call for warm, sunny, and dry conditions for Rounds 1 and 2, with the potential for wind gusts to have a say on Thursday.
- Expected cut: The Top 65 players and ties after Round 2 (36 holes) will advance to the weekend, and the cut has been between -3 and +3 the past five years.
Houston Open odds: favorites & full field
The Houston Open runs March 26-29 at Memorial Park. Below are the latest outright odds, followed by the picks and market-by-market best bets we like this week.
GolferMin Woo Lee+1200Chris Gotterup+1800Jake Knapp+2000Brooks Koepka+2200Michael Thorbjornsen+2500Sam Burns+2500Nicolai Hojgaard+2500Marco Penge+2800Kurt Kitayama+2800Rickie Fowler+3000Odds as of March 26, 7:35 a.m. ET.
Check out the full Houston Open field here.
Best bets card
- Outright: Marco Penge (+3300): Tee and green games heated up during T4 in the Valspar, and Penge can overpower Memorial Park.
- Outright: Shane Lowry (+4500): Two events removed from seven Top 25s across eight worldwide tournaments, including three Tops 5s.
- Top 40: Tony Finau (-118): 2023 winner finished T18 and sixth in true strokes gained tee-to-green last week in the Valspar, and he also finished T2 here in 2024.
- Top 40: Wyndham Clark (-111): Gained true strokes across the board during T5 here last season, and he’s gained true strokes putting in all five trips to event.
- Top 40: Ryan Fox (+100): Four straight Top 25s with true strokes gained across the board, and Fox was T15 in this event last year.
- Matchup: Marco Penge Over Ben Griffin (-125): Griffin has missed three consecutive cuts with true strokes lost on approaches in each.
- Round 1 Top 10: Wyndham Clark (+400): Checks the early tee time and course history boxes to go low Thursday morning.
Course breakdown: What wins at Memorial Park?
Memorial Park Golf Course is a demanding Par 70 that stretches a lengthy 7,475 yards, and was influenced during a 2019 Tom Doak redesign by Brooks Koepka. As a result, the scoring and conditions can resemble a major-championship setup, and players will have every aspect of their game tested this week.
The 2025 edition was a bit of an outlier, with 26 players shooting double-digits below par because from 2021 through 2023, only seven golfers went that deep, and only 10 players were -10 or lower in 2024.
I’m anticipating the storied Texas wind gusts to factor back in this week, and the scoring conditions to be more difficult than we saw last year based on early weather forecasts.
Distance off the tee is critical, and the rough isn’t punitive enough to discourage being aggressive. Min Woo Lee ranked 64th out of 69 players in driving accuracy to win last year, after all.
Putting has proven instrumental, though. The winner has finished Top 5 in true strokes gained putting in all five stops at Memorial Park.
In addition to the sheer length of the track, featuring just three Par 5s, are the tricky runoffs from the greens, which put extra emphasis on a tidy and creative short game.
- Wide forgiving fairways and non-penal rough
- Large undulated greens with steep, short-grass runoff areas
- Atypical scorecard with three Par 5s and five Par 3s
Key stats & player profiles to target
- True strokes gained tee-to-green
- Driving distance
- Bogey avoidance
- Par-5 scoring
- True strokes gained putting
- Accuracy off the tee isn't a necessity
Outright picks: winners to bet
Pick 1: Marco Penge to win (+3300)
The three-time DP World Tour winner is coming off a T4 in the Valspar last week, and Marco Penge has the distance and tee game to overpower Memorial Park.
- Course Fit: Memorial Park rewards bombers
- Recent Form: Tee game and putter were dialed last week
- Market Value: International wins and course fit are mispriced
Risk: Penge has missed the cut in three of six 2026 events.
Pick 2: Shane Lowry to win (+4500)
Rewind three weeks, and Shane Lowry was two holes from winning the Cognizant Classic, which resulted in his seventh Top 25 finish across eight events, including three Top 5s. Consecutive missed cuts have the Irishman well down the odds board, and he finished T11 here in 2021.
- Course Fit: Third trip to event with a T11 on resume
- Recent Form: Two events removed from a five-month heater
- Market Value: Consecutive missed cuts have Lowry too far down odds boards
Risk: Lowry's last individual PGA Tour win was in 2022.
Best Top 40 bets
Pick 1: Tony Finau (-118)
The 2023 Houston Open winner finished T18 and sixth in true strokes gained tee-to-green last week in the Valspar, and there’s no questioning whether Tony Finau has the distance to take advantage of Memorial Park.
- Key Stat: Sixth in true strokes gained tee-to-green last week
- Market Value: Long odds for former winner who also has T2 in event
Risk: Finau has failed to finish Top 40 in four of eight 2026 events.
Pick 2: Wyndham Clark (-111)
Wyndham Clark gained true strokes across the board during his T5 in this event last season, and he has the distance to bomb and gauge his way around Memorial Park while also gaining true strokes putting in all five trips to the track.
- Key Stat: Gained true strokes across the board during T5 here last year
- Market Value: Price doesn't accurately reflect Clark's course history
Risk: Clark missed the cut last week in the Valspar.
Pick 3: Ryan Fox (+100)
With four consecutive Top 25 finishes with true strokes gained across this board, Ryan Fox hits Memorial Park after a T15 here last year while also gaining true strokes in all five metrics.
- Key Stat: Seventh in field in true strokes gained tee-to-green across past four events
- Market Value: Current form isn’t priced correctly in this market
Risk: Fox also finished T78 in the 2024 Houston Open.
Matchup bet
Marco Penge Over Ben Griffin (-125)
Ben Griffin has missed the cut while losing true strokes on approach in each of his past three events and ranks 100th in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green during the stretch.
- Matchup Advantage: Penge’s tee game will provide far more scoring opportunities
- Key Stat: Griffin is 113th in true strokes gained off-the-tee across past three events
Risk: Griffin has two Top 20s at Memorial Park.
Round 1 Top 10
Wyndham Clark (+400)
With a pair of weekend 64s, Wyndham Clark finished T5 here last year, and he’s out early Thursday morning in the best scoring conditions of Round 1, so there’s potential for him to find the magic again.
- Key Stat: Consecutive 64s in past two rounds at Memorial Park
- Market Value: Fair price given Clark's course history and tee time
Risk: Clark is a middling 50th in Round 1 scoring this season.
Odds movement & market notes
The biggest liabilities at BetMGM for the Houston Open are Nicolai Hojgaard, Brooks Koepka and Wyndham Clark. Hojgaard has received the highest betting handle at the shop, and Koepka has received the most betting tickets. Chris Gotterup and Michael Thorbjornsen have also garnered significant betting action.
How to watch & tee times (quick links)
How to watch:
- Thursday-Friday: 3:00-7:00 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)
- Saturday-Sunday: 1:00-3:00 p.m. ET (Golf Channel), 3:00-6:00 p.m. ET (NBC)
Tee times:
- Round 1 and 2 tee times.
Houston Open betting FAQ
When is the 2026 Houston Open?
The 2026 edition of the Houston Open is Thursday, March 26, to Sunday, March 29.
Where will the 2026 Houston Open be played?
The 2026 Houston Open is being played at Memorial Park Golf Course in Houston, Texas.
Who is the 2026 Houston Open favorite?
After World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler withdrew from the Houston Open on Tuesday, defending champion Min Woo Lee became the pre-tournament betting favorite at BetMGM.
Who is the most popular bet for the 2026 Houston Open?
Nicolai Hojgaard has received the most betting handle at BetMGM to win the 2026 Houston Open, followed by Brooks Koepka and Wyndham Clark.
What are Houston Open FRL markets?
First Round Leader (FRL) markets center around which player(s) will be in the lead following the first 18 holes of the tournament.
How do Houston Open matchup bets work?
When betting Houston Open matchups, you're selecting which golfer will score better between the two players listed in that specific market. There are 18-hole, single-round matchups, in addition to tournament-long, 72-hole matchups.
What is the Houston Open cut line?
The Top 65 players and ties after Round 2 (36 holes) will advance to the weekend, and the cut has been between -3 and +3 the past five years.
Are Houston Open odds the same across all sportsbooks?
You'll see slight variations in odds across sportsbooks for the Houston Open; it's always good practice to check multiple sports betting sites for the best odds.
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