World of pain for SA motorists: Diesel price hike at R7.50 a litre
· The South African
South African motorists could be in for a painful month at the pumps, with early data pointing to a sharp fuel price increase in April.
According to the latest figures from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), steep under-recoveries have already been recorded midway through the current pricing cycle.
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As of 16 March, petrol is showing an under-recovery of up to R4.54 per litre, while diesel is even deeper in the red at around R7.51 per litre – signalling strong upward pressure on prices if trends persist.
Middle East Tensions Push Oil Higher
The surge is being driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East, involving the United States, Israel and Iran.
The conflict, which intensified in late February, has rattled global energy markets and raised concerns about potential disruptions to oil supply – particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes.
Ongoing attacks on commercial vessels in the region have further heightened fears, pushing the price of Brent crude oil above $100 per barrel, after earlier spiking close to $120.
This marks a sharp increase from below $60 per barrel earlier this year, underscoring the impact of geopolitical instability on global oil markets.
What It Means for South Africa
For South Africa, which relies heavily on imported fuel, rising global oil prices typically translate into higher local fuel costs.
If current conditions persist, motorists could face significant increases in both petrol and diesel prices in April, with the possibility of further hikes in the coming months.
Fuel price adjustments in South Africa are influenced by several factors, including international oil prices, the rand-dollar exchange rate, and government-imposed taxes and levies.
While the pricing cycle is still in its early stages, the current data paints a worrying picture for consumers already grappling with rising living costs.
The final price adjustments will depend on how global oil markets and the currency perform before the end of the cycle.
Latest forecast
Below, the latest projections as received by The South African website from the Central Energy Fund (CEF):
FUELPRICE CHANGEPetrol 93increase of 410 centsPetrol 95increase of 454 centsDiesel 0.05%increase of 740 centsDiesel 0.005%increase of 751 centsIlluminating Paraffinincrease of 943 centsIf the market conditions were to remain consistent for the remainder of the month – an unlikely scenario with the rand/dollar exchange rate fluctuating and the oil price ever changing – an increase of 410 cents per litre is expected for petrol 93 octane motorists and an increase of 454 cents for 95 users is anticipated.
Meanwhile, diesel motorists would see something between a 740 and 751 cents per litre increase.
Finally, illuminating paraffin is expected to rise by 943 cents in price.
FUEL PRICE IN SOUTH AFRICA IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS:
1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices
2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products
Oil price
At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $103.23 a barrel.
Exchange rate
At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R16.71/$.
The final overall price changes for both petrol and diesel will be confirmed later in the month with the new prices taking effect at midnight on either Tuesday, 31 March or Tuesday, 7 April (TBC).