March Madness Predictions 2026: Projecting Winners of First Four Matchups
· Yahoo Sports
March Madness officially tips off on Tuesday with the First Four, with the next two days helping determine which four programs will advance to the first round. Fortunately, we do have a few good First Four matchups to enjoy this year.
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Let’s dive into our March Madness predictions for the First Four.
(16) UMBC Retrievers vs (16) Howard Bison
Rick Osentoski-Imagn ImagesEight years after the UMBC Retrievers men’s basketball team gave us an upset for the ages, knocking out No. 1-seeded Virginia 74-54 as the 16 seed, they are back to try and deliver another Cinderella story. Of course, the program is very different years later with fifth-year coach Jim Ferry and a new roster. The Retrievers also face a tough test against a Howard Bison program that went 11-1 with a +19.7 point differential in its final 12 games. However, UMBC is riding a 12-game winning streak right now, and it’s shot 47.7 percent from the field while averaging nearly 80 points per game during that stretch. We’re giving the edge to a Retrievers team that has a bit more scoring and playmaking depth. UMBC goes on to face Michigan, with millions hoping we see a 16-seed beat the No. 1 again.
- Prediction: UMBC 74, Howard 69
(11) Texas Longhorns vs (11) NC State Wolfpack
Bob Donnan-Imagn ImagesAfter helping get McNeese to March Madness in consecutive years, coach Will Wade is on the verge of doing it again in his first season with the NC State Wolfpack. Wade’s program might be facing the Texas Longhorns at the perfect time. The Longhorns ended play in the SEC going 1-5, allowing 85.7 PPG and a whopping 50.8 percent from the field, all the while barely winning the rebounding battle (180-177). Dailyn Swain, the SEC Newcomer of the Year and an All-SEC Second Team selection, has averaged nearly 37 minutes played per game during that span, and he’s more than capable of putting up 20-plus points with double-digit rebounds and five assists with multiple stocks. However, NC State is very well-coached, and we think Wade will have them ready to take advantage of the Longhorns’ defensive vulnerabilities. NC State moves on to face BYU.
- Prediction: NC State 82, Texas 77
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(11) SMU Mustangs vs (11) Miami Redhawks
Bob Donnan-Imagn ImagesDid the Miami (OH) RedHawks deserve to participate in March Madness after going undefeated in the regular season? Absolutely. There should be recognition for 31 consecutive wins; it’s a historic feat that we don’t often get to see. With that said, immediately losing to a 17-15 UMass Minutemen team in the quarterfinals of the MAC Championship Tournament also served as a reminder of why so many were skeptical of the RedHawks. Heading into the First Four, the SMU Mustangs are ranked 42nd in the KenPom rankings, while Miami (OH) is 93rd. We expect guard Boopie Miller and the Mustangs to win comfortably, clinching a spot in the first round against Tennessee.
- Prediction: SMU 89, Miami (Ohio) 75
(16) Prairie View AM Panthers vs (16) Lehigh Mountain Hawks
James Lang-Imagn ImagesLehigh is back in the tournament for the first time since 2012, coming off an 18-16 season that ended with a dominant victory over Boston University to clinch the Patriot League title. The win means drawing a First Four matchup versus Prairie View A&M, who won the SWAC Tournament after finishing just one game above .500 this season. In his second season with the program and coming off an outstanding Patriot League Tournament run, guard Nasir Whitlock will propel Lehigh to a victory. Unfortunately for the program, the No. 1-seeded Florida Gators await them.
- Prediction: Lehigh 80, Prairie View A&M 68
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