Can Miami (Ohio) basketball reach Sweet 16 in March Madness bracket? Our prediction
· Yahoo Sports
The Miami RedHawks are headed to Dayton for the NCAA Tournament's First Four on March 18.
Visit asg-reflektory.pl for more information.
Miami earned an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since Wally Szczerbiak roamed the campus in 1999. That RedHawks team rode all the way to the Sweet 16, matching Miami's best-ever March Madness finish.
This year's Miami squad is fresh off just the fifth undefeated regular season in 35 years, going 31-0 before losing in the Mid-American Conference tournament. The RedHawks secured the two biggest MAC individual awards: Travis Steele earned MAC Coach of the Year and Peter Suder was named the league's Player of the Year.
Can Miami slip into Cinderella's slippers again in 2026? If Miami wants to reach the tournament's second weekend, they'll have to win three games: beating SMU in Dayton, knocking off 6-seed Tennessee in the first round and winning another game in the round of 32 in Philadelphia.
Travis Steele is looking for his first win in the Big Dance as a head coach. Miami may never have a better situation than a borderline home game in Dayton against SMU. Miami's energy may carry it through the First Four, but can that carry over all the way to the second weekend?
Here are two reasons Miami can reach the Sweet 16, two reasons it can't, and our prediction:
Why Miami can reach NCAA Tournament Sweet 16
Miami's offense should worry opposing coaches in the NCAA Tournament. The RedHawks have the second highest scoring offense in the entire country, racing up and down the court to average 90.7 points per game. Miami is the best shooting team in the country, shooting 52.4% from the floor, and their 39.2% shooting from 3-point range is good for eighth in the nation. Very few teams have seen offenses as efficient as Miami's.
Perhaps even more dangerous than the efficiency of the Miami offense is the variety of ways the RedHawks can score. Miami's leading scorer is senior captain Peter Suder with 14.6 points per game, but there are six active RedHawks who average over 10 points per game. Seven different active players have eclipsed 20 points in a game: Almar Atlason, Brant Byers, Eian Elmer, Trey Perry, Peter Suder, Kyle Waltz, and Antwone Woolfolk.
The challenge for opposing coaches will be deciding which players to try and take away in their truncated scouting and game prep. SMU, Miami's First Four opponent, will have just 72 hours to prepare for the RedHawks' offense. No matter who the Mustangs (or Tennessee in the round of 64) hone in on as a defense, Miami can find ways to score in bunches.
Miami RedHawks not afraid of big moments
The pressure is never higher than in the NCAA Tournament. Miami is familiar with nail-biting finishes and high-pressure situations.
Through the RedHawks' 31-0 regular season, each game was a de facto elimination game for Miami's at-large hopes and record-setting aspirations. Time again, Miami refused to buckle and just kept finding ways to win. High-scoring shootouts, grinding defensive slogs, the RedHawks won in every way imaginable.
The most memorable moments of March Madness are undoubtedly the buzzer-beaters. Down-to-the-wire finishes are a hallmark of the Tournament, and Miami went 9-0 in games decided by 3 points or less or in overtime. Travis Steele's word for his team is 'unflappable', and he has the utmost confidence in his players in end-of-game situations.
Should the RedHawks find themselves in an instant classic NCAA Tournament fame, their experience in close games should give them the advantage.
Why Miami would exit in NCAA Tournament first weekend
In Miami's only loss of the season, Miami struggled mightily to match UMass's size and physicality. It wasn't the first time Miami had been outrebounded, but it was the first time the RedHawks couldn't overcome a poor performance on the glass. The Minutemen, led by the 6-9, 240-pound Leonardo Bettiol, out-boarded the RedHawks 41-24. UMass secured 17 offensive rebounds, scored 23 second chance points, and had 54 points in the paint.
RedHawks coach Travis Steele knows the team's weakness, and said on Selection Sunday that they would be focused on improving their interior presence.
"We have to embrace the physicality of the game," Steele said. "If we do that, we'll be more than fine because we can score."
Their improvement down low will be tested quicky in the NCAA Tournament. SMU has 7-2 center Samet Yiğitoğlu who makes the Mustangs one of the top offensive-rebounding teams in the Atlantic Coast Conference. Even if the RedHawks get through SMU, Tennessee will have size advantages across the board and are the second-best rebounding team in the Southeastern Conference.
Miami schedule lacked high-quality wins
It was the big knock against the RedHawks undefeated regular season: Miami's non-conference schedule was bad. While Miami reportedly tried to secure matchups with power conference opponents, their final schedule included three non-DI opponents and zero Quad-1 games in the NCAA's NET rating. Out of 365 Division I programs, Miami's non-league schedule ranked 362nd in strength of schedule. Miami simply hasn't been tested against the top teams in the sport.
Conceivably, Miami could be in for a rude awakening against their high-major opponents in the NCAA Tournament. Miami does have wins over two teams in the field in Wright State (14 seed) and Akron (12 seed), but the schedule may not have prepared the RedHawks for the Big Dance.
2026 March Madness prediction for Miami (Ohio)
At least in it's First Four showdown with SMU, Miami will have one decisive advantage: the crowd. With the First Four taking place annually at UD Arena in Dayton, RedHawks fans will have to make just a 50 minute drive north to cheer on their team. SMU, by contrast, is nearly 1,000 miles away.
SMU backed its way into the Tournament, winning just one of its last six games. The Mustangs beat Syracuse in the first round of the ACC Tournament; 15-17 Syracuse promptly fired its head coach Red Autry. SMU coach Andy Enfield will have his work cut out for him in getting the Mustangs mindset right to play in a near road game environment.
Miami, despite being 7.5-point underdogs, will have more than enough energy behind it to pull of the First Four upset. Miami's experience in close games should prepare it for a high-scoring dogfight with the Mustangs.
The biggest hurdle to a repeat of 1999's Szczerbiak-led trip to the Sweet 16 will be a first round matchup with Tennessee. The Volunteers have size across the boar with three starters checking in over 6-10, taller than Miami's big man underneath Antwone Woolfolk. Tennessee's defense is one of the nation's best, ranked top-15 in defensive rating at KenPom, and has already faced and beaten the only offense better than Miami's this season, Alabama. Tennessee leads the nation in offensive rebounding with 16 a game, which is a weakness for the RedHawks.
It's a hard to imagine a worse first-round opponent for Miami than Tennessee. But history may favor the RedHawks to overcome the odds.
Will Miami make a Sweet 16 run?
Since 2016 11-seeds actually hold a winning record over 6-seeds, going 15-13 as presumptive underdogs. In all but two Tournaments since 2011, a team from the First Four has won a first-round game to move on to the round of 32.
Miami has the experience in high-pressure situations to be this year's First Four Cinderella. The RedHawks, unlike many teams from years past to play in Dayton, won't have flown across the country to get there and will stay in the same time zone when they fly to Philadelphia for the first round. The energized RedHawks sneak past the Volunteers in an instant classic, 73-72.
In the round of 32, the job gets easier. After Wright State upsets Virginia in the first round (book it!), Miami will knock out the Raiders for the second time this season. The RedHawks will secure their first trip to the NCAA Tournament's second weekend since Wally Szczerbiak's 1999 squad.
Unfortunately, that's where the party comes to an end. 2-seed Iowa State, with its notoriously well-traveling fan base, will end Miami's dream season at 33-2 with a 72-60 victory in Chicago.
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Miami (Ohio) NCAA bracket predictions: RedHawks can reach Sweet 16