Expanding Middle East war to loom over domestic economy
· Michael West
Events in the Middle East will cast a shadow over Australia’s economy with the widening conflict potentially impacting inflation.
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While this week will feature a lull in the volume of major data released, developments in the Middle East will be watched keenly by the Reserve Bank for any sign of impact on domestic markets.
The central bank’s governor, Michele Bullock, warned on Tuesday it would be too early to tell what the effect would be, with supply shocks adding to inflation pressures.
Michele Bullock: it’s too soon to say what the impact of the Middle East conflict will look like. (Dan Himbrechts/AAP PHOTOS)“The potential implications for inflation expectations are something we are very alert to,” she said.
“But at the same time, a prolonged impact on energy markets could have adverse effects on global economic activity and result in downward pressure on inflation.”
Petrol prices jumped in Australian capitals following US-Israeli strikes in the Middle East, with Iran threatening to attack vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, of which one fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through.
While inflation has remained steady at 3.8 per cent, underlying inflation, which is the preferred measure of the Reserve Bank, rose in January to 3.4 per cent, still well above the bank’s target of two to three per cent.
The situation prompted Ms Bullock to say the next interest rate decision on March 17 will be “live”, raising the prospect of back-to-back hikes in the cash rate.
Off the back of household spending figures rising slightly in January, the coming week will deliver fresh figures on consumer sentiment.
Petrol prices quickly jumped in capital cities following US-Israeli strikes in the Middle East. (Sarah Wilson/AAP PHOTOS)Westpac’s consumer confidence survey for March will be released on Tuesday, with economists tipping a fall of 1.1 per cent for the month.
The survey will cover the first full month since the Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate to 3.85 per cent at its February meeting.
February’s data displayed signs consumers were easing back spending in preparations for rate hikes.
NAB’s business confidence report will also be issued on Tuesday.
The previous release, in February, showed business confidence on the rise but conditions falling, driven by declines in profitability.
Meanwhile, Wall Street investors are jittery over labour market setbacks and a 12 per cent spike in prices at fuel the bowser.
All three main indexes closed down on Friday, with a disappointing payrolls report intensifying worries over economic cooling and the Middle East situation pushing up energy costs.
Surging oil prices and a poor jobs outlook made for Wall Street’s worst week since October. (AP PHOTO)The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.95 per cent to 47,501.55 points, the S&P 500 lost 1.33 per cent to 6,740.00 and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 1.59 per cent to 22,387.68.
Australian share futures plunged 135 points, or 1.52 per cent, to 15,737.
The S&P/ASX200 fell 89.3 points on Friday, down one per cent, to 8,851, as the broader All Ordinaries lost 79.8 points, or 0.87 per cent, to 9,085.1.
It was the top-200’s worst weekly performance since early April 2025.